Gerry The Octopus

Time for some predictions!

Burnley v Southampton

This is probably going to be tighter than it looks. Southampton rolled in to town at Aston Villa a couple of weeks ago and were expected to blow their at-the-time beleaguered hosts away. Since then, Burnley have shown signs of life to claw themselves into contention for survival. Southampton, by contrast, are battling for survival in the big battles at the top of the league. Champions League football seemed on the horizon not so long ago and even after one point from four games, the Saints remain handily placed in fifth.

Graziano Pelle broke his barren streak against Man United and while Southampton can have few complaints at defeat, given their profligacy in front of goal, they may find opportunities harder to come by against a well-drilled outfit here at Turf Moor. However, their own defence has remained relatively tight, with only Manchester City really blowing them away.

0-1

Chelsea v Hull

This one will not be tighter than it looks! Hull are in the form of relegation candidates. The signings which were supposed to add a bit of flair to last season’s relegation-dodging, cup final-reaching Tigers have instead coincided with a huge slump in form, which in truth stretches back to the end of last campaign. Hatem Ben Arfa is out in the cold, yet will be relatively warm in the stands while he contemplates another missed opportunity, but it is those out on the pitch who must arrest the slump of no wins in eight and no more than two shots on target in the last six league games. Gaston Ramirez will at least give a bit more class to the midfield on his return from suspension.

There’s not much you can say about Chelsea. Despite their invincibility being breached by Newcastle’s cow last weekend, they reminded everyone of their quality by dispatching Sporting Lisbon 3-1 midweek. Diego Costa will be in the mood to silence critics of his recent form, while Peter Cech will be looking to keep a clean sheet on a rare appearance in goal. No Cesc Fabregas would be disastrous for most teams, but Eden Hazard will sense easy pickings as Chelsea aim to cement their place at the top.

3-0

Crystal Palace v Stoke

Not the most attractive looking of fixtures on the card, Crystal Palace would bite your hand off for a scrappy 1-0 win as they look to edge further away from danger. Neil Warnock has reprised the sort of spirit that Tony Pulis instilled last year to drag the Eagles from trouble and there has been some wonderful counter-attacking football at Selhurst Park, not least to pile on the misery for Liverpool in the 3-1 win.

However, Stoke have caught the eye themselves, with Bojan really starting to turn on the style. Victory against Arsenal has almost come to be expected over the years, but if Stoke want to progress into a European-challenging team they must learn to win these sorts of games. Mid-table seems inevitable for this year, but Mark Hughes will want more, starting with three points this afternoon. That may be beyond them, but it may be a surprisingly entertaining encounter.

1-1

Leicester v Man City

Could this be the game where Leicester upset the odds all over again? Their thrilling 5-3 victory over the other Manchester team was supposed to be the catalyst for Premier League domination, but instead only two points from 30 have seen the Foxes plummet to rock bottom. Along the way, boss Nigel Pearson has found himself on the wrong side of fans as it all threatens to go horribly wrong.

They will not be expecting much against a Man City side with the best away record in the division. Victories against Southampton, and more recently, Roma, to book their place in the Champions League last 16, will ensure confidence is sky high. Last week’s results will remind them that the title is still possible if they can keep up their own form. Sergio Aguero has not been missed as much as you would think and even if fit, you suspect he may have been rested for this one anyway.

0-2

Sunderland v West Ham

Here we have another litmus test for West Ham’s European ambitions. Sunderland are a side who have frustrated many superior opponents in the past 12 months, but their game plan will be interesting against a Hammers side who rarely come out all guns blazing away from home. Andy Carroll has re-discovered his golden touch lately and Diafra Sakho is in contention for a return to the side.

Sunderland will be expected to get at the opposition and give the crowd something to get excited about. Five goalless draws already this season is not something to get bums on seats. The danger for the Black Cats is that a more attacking game plan could play into Sam Allardyce’s hands. Counter-attacking is his new forte, and you’d fancy his side to outscore their hosts, with Steven Fletcher not in the most ruthless of form this season.

0-2

West Brom v Aston Villa

Alan Irvine and Paul Lambert may exchange wry smiles this afternoon. Both have felt the pressure in recent weeks and while Lambert appears out of the woods for now, Irvine is in desperate need of a win. The Baggies are sliding and Saidio Berahino needs to re-discover his form. Aston Villa are not the worst of opponents to try and arrest a slump against, but Villa are often better away from home.

Lambert will be delighted with their recent revival and they lie only four points off the top six, which seems astounding given their start to the season. Christian Benteke was the scourge of Albion last season, and he may push yet another West Brom manager ever closer to the trap door.

0-1

Arsenal v Newcastle

This is a battle between two teams with horrible injury lists and another two managers who’ve experienced the ups and downs of security in their job. Arsene Wenger seemed secure as ever after his FA Cup win, while Alan Pardew looked certain to be fired over the summer after a woeful first half of 2014. Now, roles are reversed. It would take a brave man to predict Wenger’s departure any time soon, but an equally brave man to put money on him remaining for next season.

He is perhaps fortunate to be facing a Newcastle side who will be shorn of their midfield talisman Moussa Sissoko. He is the centre of their counter-attacking style and goals have not been easy to come by for the Toon, aside from the return to form of super-sub Cisse. It will be a tight game, but Arsenal should edge this one.

1-0

Man United v Liverpool

This will be quite the full-blooded encounter and with Steven Gerrard approaching the twilight of his career, he will relish the opportunity to get at what remains a shaky United defence. Raheem Sterling will also be licking his lips. The trouble is, there remains little other threat in the Liverpool arsenal.

In further troubling times, Liverpool’s defence is just as leaky. Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney will fancy their chances against a defence manned by the unconvincing Simon Mignolet. Mario Balotelli is fit for the visitors, but you could argue what difference that even makes, given the Italian’s lacklustre start to the season.

2-1

Swansea v Spurs

To round off what will be an entertaining Sunday is two teams who will be aiming for Europe next season. You could argue that Spurs fans are sick of the Europa League and want more glitzy encounters, while Swansea would happily take their place in the much-maligned second European tier. One point separates the two going into the weekend.

Swansea will see this as a test of their own ambition. With Spurs coming off the back of another un-welcomely interrupted midweek tie, this should be the perfect time to strike. Wilfried Bony is having another strong season and Spurs will have to wait another week to haul themselves out of their mid-table rut.

2-0

Everton v QPR

Given the fact that Everton rested most of their first-team in the mid-week Europa League defeat, fatigue should be no excuse here, even for an ageing team such as theirs. QPR’s away record is what will keep them endlessly fighting against the drop, and away to Everton is a time to dig in.

Ross Barkley should be fresh and ready to take on Harry Redknapp’s men and Everton need points badly. Sitting in 12^th, if they do not put a run of form together soon they will need to win the Europa League to get back into Europe next year. This should be a good place to start however, but a scrappy game could be on the cards.

2-0

Calm Before The Storm

As we trundle towards Christmas, there is no manager whom you could safely predict is one game away from the sack. In an age where trigger-happy chairmen have been vilified by sections of the media as impatient and clueless, and the awful ‘look how much time Fergie was given’ cliché is wheeled out every few weeks, the only managerial departure so far is Tony Pulis and that was very much of his own volition.

Alan Pardew, dead man walking eight weeks ago, is now man of the hour, if not quite manager of any months. Big Sam Allardyce rides high in third place after showing a previously unfathomable ability to play something other than hoof-ball. It is great to see, managers adapting even in their later years. Not every personality is as fixed as some people like to paint. It’s easy for anyone writing about a football manager to revert to a character, as if sport is a sitcom with a satisfying narrative where no one ever changes. I can imagine Pardew and Allardyce had a chuckle over the very same points last week after the match. Well, maybe Allardyce was a bit more in the mood for a joke having stolen the points.

Football being an extremely political game, any manager with half a chance of surviving longer than two minutes must surely develop the thickest of skins. If you make the wrong subs, you’re clueless. If a sub works wonders, why didn’t he start the game? Win all your games and it’s all down to the players. Lose all your games and you’re the worst person ever, let alone manager. Brendan Rodgers is being hounded closer to the exit door after the Luis Suarez departure, yet wasn’t there a stat floating around last season which showed Liverpool had a higher points average without the hungry Uruguayan? Perhaps Daniel Sturridge was equally as essential to the Anfield attack? The 3-0 drubbing of Tottenham with Sturridge in the team and playing with ten men (well, Balotelli WAS playing) is Liverpool’s sole bright spot this season. Yes, the Suarez money could have been spent better, but that’s just it. It’s not the lack of Suarez, it’s the poor transfer window and inability to get the best out of what players are there which is costing Rodgers. He may get the time to turn it around and he probably will eventually, even if this season ends up a write-off.

Unfortunately, some managers don’t seem to help themselves. Arsene Wenger thought he had ridden out the storm after fending off Hull in May’s FA Cup final but he merely raised expectations one last and possibly fatal time. January will be Wenger’s last throw of the dice for some Arsenal fans. As a Newcastle supporter, I hate to say this but Moussa Sissoko is a must-buy for the ailing Londoners. You can buy all the forward flair in the world but if you’ve lost the battle in the centre then what’s the point? On second thoughts, Yohan Cabaye please. He’s already ex-Newcastle and he can put a foot in rightly!

As for Paul Lambert, Alan Irvine, Harry Redknapp, and all the other bottom-half dwellers, they will bounce from crisis to crisis, hopefully learn a thing or two along the way, and reach that point where the pressure becomes second-nature. This season is becoming one of managerial resilience. Cue the inevitable mass-sacking which renders this article as useful  as a chocolate teapot.

A Couple Of Manchester Derby Thoughts

From the moment Chris Smalling opened his mouth to say that the Manchester derby would be 100 miles an hour, it should have set alarm bells ringing. For his idea of a quick-tempo encounter was apparently more of a drag race than that of a smartly-navigated autobahn - which is something boss Louis Van Gaal will know all about from his time in Munich. The Dutchman will be forgiven for imagining in horror the carnage on British roads if speed limits were ever relaxed in such a way, after the predicament his passionate-yet-clueless defender had put him in became all too clear.

Manchester United were already up against it, given the recent history of this derby - four league defeats in succession becomes five as Manchester City swatted aside suggestions that United were ready to prematurely snatch back their local dominance. Instead, the red half of Manchester must ponder their worst league since 1986 and the dark days of Ron Atkinson. Is it too late to prize David Moyes away from the heady heights of the Real Sociedad job?

In the sensible realms of reality, the Van Gaal project, while not exactly purring along, is showing signs of long-term fruition. The Moyes-manned eleven men of United were dismantled 4-1 last season, and whilst this is not the same swaggering City of twelve months ago, progress can surely be noted. If even Alan Pardew can haul Newcastle out of their slump (for this week) on his peanuts of a transfer budget, Van Gaal will sense a return to Europe on United's horizon.

Welbeck Answers The Critics

Arsene Wenger would have been rubbing his hands with glee tonight, as Danny Welbeck slipped nicely into his new role as an actual goal-scorer. Often pushed onto the flanks, and eventually out the door, at Old Trafford, the 23-year-old has a knack of producing when it really counts (ignoring his encounter with Neuer last season). Sweden and Italy have both felt his wrath at major tournaments, and he has ensured England go forward with one foot already in France and Euro 2016.

Wayne Rooney and Raheem Sterling dove-tailed beautifully at times with the new Arsenal man, and the duo of finishes he provided were clinical. No longer can it be claimed that he is no finisher. Welbeck perhaps struggled with his fringe role alongside Wayne Rooney for Man United, and the crumbling of United's general dominance alongside the remaining high expectations. England as a national side have probably never been lower in terms of expectation, despite a potentially fearsome attack. The defence creaked, but Welbeck was razor sharp on the counter.

Ten goals in 28 games is no shame at international level, and there is no reason why the Englishman should not perhaps even double that total for Arsenal this season, given the embarrassment of riches in that particular midfield. Man United have chosen to go down the foreign route at a high cost to their own coffers, yet Welbeck will be hungry to prove they had a good thing under their nose the whole time. It is not inconceivable that his goals could secure a Champions League spot for Arsenal at his former club's expense, and Wenger will know he has got a bargain, if you can call a £16m purchase that.

Roy Hodgson will also be thrilled at Welbeck's upturn in fortunes. With Theo Walcott's eventual return to fitness, a big portion of England's attack will be able to strike up a new understanding, and with Welbeck's past alongside Rooney in addition to the Sterling/Sturridge/Lambert trio at Liverpool, the scope for huge fluidity in the England attack is arguably greater than ever.

As far as the English defence goes, Gary Cahill gave the kind of all-action performance that used to be John Terry's staple, particularly for one heroic clearance that stopped a certain goal. However, Phil Jones must do more to nail down what could be his place for the next ten years and beyond. The dearth of options must be used to his own advantage, and his undoubted potential needs to be tapped into over the next year or two. He could even be a captain for both club and country, such are the good traits he possesses. Inspiration can be taken from his ex-club-mate at the other end of the pitch.

Man United's 'Identity' Is Already Long Gone

The sale of Danny Welbeck to Arsenal is being held up as an example of Manchester United's distinctive identity being lost, as claimed by ex-assistant manager Mike Phelan.

Is it not the case however, that this started a long time ago? For a long time now, Welbeck has seemed at odds with the galactico-style recruitment favoured by the club. Even Fergie, in his latter days, plumped for a 29-year-old Robin Van Persie to play down the middle ahead of Welbeck.

If we really want to nit-pick, surely the club's identity was sold down the river to the Glazers, as part of their supposed milking of club funds for their own agenda, and holding the club from reaching its potential. Whether that is all accurate or not (the summer's spending spree would suggest this is exaggerated), it is a long time since the Class off '92. Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes, the Neville brothers, Nicky Butt, and David Beckham, to name a few home-grown stars over the years are all of a similar retired age. Recent headline-makers include Wayne Rooney (a big-money signing from Everton), Cristiano Ronaldo (a Portugese wonder-kid turned global by Fergie), and the aformentioned Van Persie.

It is what all clubs have done. The idea of a club having an instinctive identity that breeds all the best-loved players from a 500-yard radius of the stadium is romantic, and part of the magic that connects a club to its fans. In the lower league it still exists to a large extent. But the big leagues are now about the biggest wallets, and have been for some time. Any club that splashes out in an attempt to reach footballing greatness is guilty of losing big chunks of their identity in return. Arsenal are held up as a shining example of all that is well and good about English football, in terms of sustainability, and style of play. Yet even they for nearly two decades have been managed by a Frenchman, and their largest shareholder, Stan Kroenke, is an American, just like the Glazers and John W. Henry at Liverpool. Chelsea are run by a Russian/Portugese combo.

In such a globalised world, this is all inevitable, particularly at the game's top table. Yet the dynasty of Sir Alex Ferguson lulled United fans into a sense of false pride at how their club was run. "Give a manager time, like Fergie was given", has been the standard cry from fans/pundits in defense of whoever's head was on the Premier League chopping block. Even when Moyes was appointed, Fergie himself perpetuated the myth that Old Trafford was somehow a special land of infinite patience. Nine months later, they became just like any other club, panicked into action by poor short-term results. Fergie would never have got the same time in this day and age, and neither will Van Gaal. Welbeck may have come from the United academy, but just like the overlooking of Giggs for the managerial post, a Dutchman, a Scouser, and a Colombian will all battle it out for striking supremacy ahead of the young Englishman.

In many ways, this dilution of local identity has led to more exciting football from a neutral's perspective. Football is as tribal as ever, but in a more fluid manner. Luis Suarez was no less thrilling to watch at Anfield for his foreign status, but even he now makes way for the cementing of local favourite Raheem Sterling (well, and Balotelli.) The time is now perfect for Man United to gracefully accept their status as just another mish-mash of world-renowned footballers from all the realms of the galaxy. As anyone who witnesses Angel Di Maria blowing his first Premier League defence away will testify, there are worse fates than your club losing its true historical identity.

Ben Arfa's Newcastle Hell Ended by Geordie Bruce.

Many (too many) words have been written about Hatem Ben Arfa in the past year or so. Here are some more to round off the latest perplexing saga in the North-East. Newcastle fans have tended to use his potentially world-beating talent as a vehicle from which to take aim at manager Alan Pardew. Every poor performance in the Frenchman's absence would be accompanied by pro-Ben Arfa chants, designed to undermine the manager and paint the Gallic maestro as some kind of wronged political prisoner under the Ashley/Pardew regime. Che Guevara banners have become common-place in recent months. He was even forced to cancel a 'meet and greet' with fans in local venue 'The Back Page', amid club fears of whipping up some kind of anti-establishment frenzy.

There is another school of thought, one that suggests Ben Arfa's inability to track back or work as part of a tight unit was detrimental to the team spirit of Newcastle United. This has consistently been the official line coming from Pardew, and it has been suggested that the rest of the squad share this point of view, ever since last autumn's 3-2 defeat to Everton, where Ben Arfa was replaced at half-time with the score at 3-0. Ever since, he struggled to get games.

The truth, as ever, lies somewhere in between. Ben Arfa is a talent that no amount of fancy-dan recruitment can hope to replace. Remy Cabella, although excellent for Montpellier last season, does not yet fully convince as a focal creative point for an aspiring Premier League attack. More should have been done by Pardew to integrate Ben Arfa into a unit that has all too often appeared negative and anything but tight. This calendar year has seen Newcastle display relegation form, and while the Frenchman has been packed off to Hull for the remainder of his contract, Pardew must do a hell of a lot more to prove he has learnt his lessons. A talent such as Ben Arfa's should have been given more trust and room to breathe.

Yet, as Pardew will undoubtedly argue, Ben Arfa did not do quite enough on the pitch, on a sufficiently frequent basis, to earn the manager's trust. A total of 14 goals and 18 assists in 86 appearances is hardly Messi-esque, even though when he did turn it on, the fireworks were glorious. Breaking it down to cold efficient logic, even the best goals only count for one, yet the inspiration of Ben Arfa at his best lit up St James' Park, and that golden spring of 2012 will always be remembered as the time when even Pardew's handbrake was not enough to hold back a Ba/Cisse/Ben Arfa trio.

Here lies the crux. Like many on Newcastle's books (the equally banished Marveaux for one), Ben Arfa did not fit into a management style that favours hard work and industry more than anything else. Not that everyone should Berbatov their way around the pitch, but there has to be room for that lazy kind of unpredictability, the sort that gives defenders cold sweats. Siem de Jong and Cabella may yet provide the antidote to this, but surely it would have been easier to just bury the hatchet with a man who has proved he can rip the Premier League to shreds on his day.

Steve Bruce, a through-and-through Geordie (who managed Sunderland no less) will know what he is getting, and if he can coax the goods out of Ben Arfa, Pardew will look even more foolish. The best goals may only count for one, but arrogance and gross mismanagement like we have seen at Newcastle lately counts for no goals, no points, and no support.

Deadline Day Fun!

By far and away the biggest transfer deadline day story; Harry Redknapp, in navigating his way through a path of journalists, did not wind his window down. On the subject of his own wheeler-dealing (hopefully he's not reading this), Fabio Borini is rumoured to be on his way to Loftus Road for a reported £10m from Liverpool. Injury prone? Check. High wages? Check. Over 30? Not by a long shot. The 23-year-old is a good prospect who could yet make it in England, judging by his part in another Houdini act last season at Sunderland. However, with QPR's general dealing remaining exclusively to big names, it remains to be seen whether they will be suited to a relegation battle. Big-money additions, Leroy Fer and Jordan Mutch, are both highly regarded, but both suffered the drop last season. Fer in particular received mixed reviews from Norwich fans on his ability to track back and work hard.

One player who is more than willing to put in the donkey work for the greater good is Danny Welbeck. News of an imminent loan move to Arsenal is being greeted with some howls of derision by some Arsenal fans, who after seeing their club spend an unheard of £40m on Alexis Sanchez, are frustrated at an apparent signing that they feel to be beneath them. How dare they resort to signing a fourth-choice Man United reserve? In reality, it should not be that simple. Welbeck has always had the utmost potential, and has been unfairly regarded as an unsexy English clogger. He has an excellent burst of pace, and possesses the kind of explosive attributes that the always silky-smooth Arsenal attack misses in the absence of Theo Walcott (not that Welbeck would ever catch Walcott in a 100m race). Adding that to Sanchez, Sanogo, and Podolski (with Giroud and Walcott still to return), Arsene Wenger would be happy with his options, given the formidable array of attacking midfielders they possess. Big names and big money do not always equal success.

Having said that, Man United's summer spending is beginning to resemble a child blindly (no pun intended) swinging at a bountiful pinata. Luke Shaw, Angel Di Maria, Daley Blind, Ander Herrera, and now Falcao, must be leaving David Moyes seething with jealousy, despite the glee he must at least somewhat be feeling at Louis Van Gaal's underwhelming results to date. The Dutchman's selection headaches will be reaching migraine proportions when he jots the names down on paper, but at least Tom Cleverley looks to be one name he can rub off the list of mediocrity, as he seems to be close to a move to Aston Villa.

As a Newcastle fan, what began as an exciting summer sprinkled with actual signings rather than know-nothing directors of football, has fizzled out into one that still requires further reinforcements, particularly at the back. Mike Williamson has performed admirably at times, but should not be a first-choice any higher than the relegation battlers. Steven Taylor's career at the top level has passed him by, and captain Coloccini is beginning to show his lack of pace as he approaches his mid-30s. Alan Pardew is past his sell-by-date and working for an owner who doesn't care about the club beyond its useful function as a cash cow. The only progress from last season will be in a downward direction unless serious changes happen at both board and dug-out level.

With three hours to go at the time of writing, there is still the chance of Wenger ensnaring Messi, as the Barca galactico is taking part in a charity match that the Frenchman is attending. In Wenger We Trust. Until he doesn't spend a trillion billion pounds on a striker that is. Happy deadline day!